Your Daily Money Briefing

Yesterday We Told You Rate-Hike Odds Jumped to 43%. Today They Crashed to 17%.

Four stories about the economy and markets that actually affect your wallet. Plain English, no jargon, no hype — just what happened and why it matters.

Inflation Just Fell for the First Time Since the Pandemic

Talk about a reversal. The Consumer Price Index actually dropped 0.4% in June — the first monthly decline since the pandemic — surprising nearly everyone who expected a modest rise. The relief was immediate: the odds of a Fed rate hike at this month's meeting collapsed from 42% to just 17% overnight. "The easing was pretty broad and spread across a bunch of categories, a relief to investors," noted Adam Crisafulli of Vital Knowledge.

Duck it — this is exactly why we keep telling you not to overreact to any single day's headline. Yesterday's story was "the Fed might hike." Today's is "maybe not after all." Both were true when we told you.

Why it matters to you: before you celebrate, note the fine print: traders still see a 63% chance rates end up higher after September. Crisafulli's own warning stands — "the Fed and economy aren't in the clear."

Remember That 20% "Iran Blockade" Fee From Yesterday? It's Already Gone.

Less than 24 hours after announcing a 20% fee on cargo crossing the Strait of Hormuz, President Trump abandoned it. His explanation: "based on highly productive conversations with Middle East leadership," he's replacing the fee with trade and investment deals from Gulf states instead. Oil prices eased off their highs on the news, though tensions with Iran remain elevated — the U.S. carried out fresh strikes on Iranian military targets overnight.

Why it matters to you: this whiplash is becoming a pattern this month — a dramatic policy announcement, a market reaction, then a walk-back within days. If you're trading around these headlines, remember how fast they can flip.

IBM Just Had Its Worst Day in Years — Down Roughly a Quarter of Its Value

IBM shares sank about 24-25% after the company warned that second-quarter profits will come in below expectations, citing soft demand in its software and infrastructure businesses. The damage spread: Workday fell nearly 6%, Autodesk and Salesforce both dropped 3%, and even Microsoft slipped almost 2% on the read-through to enterprise software spending broadly.

Why it matters to you: a quarter of a company's value disappearing in one day is a reminder of how unforgiving markets can be with a single disappointing earnings call — even for a household name like IBM.

ASML Jumped 7% After Raising Its Outlook for the Second Time This Year

Dutch semiconductor equipment maker ASML raised its full-year sales guidance for the second time in 2026, citing continued strong demand as its customers ramp up production of AI chips. The stock jumped more than 7% on the news, helping lift chip stocks broadly across Europe and pulling U.S. futures higher too, with Intel and Lam Research each up more than 3%.

Why it matters to you: a company raising guidance twice in one year is a genuine vote of confidence, not just hype — a useful counterweight to worries about the AI trade running out of steam that we've flagged in recent weeks.

This is a market news summary, not investment advice. Economic and financial conditions are subject to change — please make your own decisions and consider talking to a licensed financial advisor before acting on anything here.

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