Your Daily Money Briefing

SpaceX Reports Its First Earnings Ever Tomorrow. The Stock's Already Down 18% From Its Debut.

Four things that actually moved money today. No fluff, no hedging, just what happened.

SpaceX's First-Ever Earnings Report Lands Tomorrow

We've tracked SpaceX cooling off for weeks since its record June 12 IPO. Tomorrow it reports its first quarterly earnings as a public company. The stock is down 18% from its debut price but still carries a $1.5 trillion market value — so even after the slide, the market is still pricing in enormous expectations.

Duck it — this is the report that separates "hyped IPO cooling off" from "hyped IPO actually in trouble." A $1.5 trillion valuation needs real numbers behind it starting tomorrow, not just Elon Musk's name on the label.

If you bought this IPO, tomorrow afternoon is not optional reading. Same goes if you're considering buying the dip.

Palantir Just Posted the Kind of Quarter Everyone Wishes They Had

Palantir delivered a genuine blowout: surging U.S. commercial AI demand, record contract growth, and a raised full-year revenue guide. Compare that to Meta's cash-flow collapse a week ago and you've got the cleanest possible illustration of how differently this earnings season is treating "AI winners" versus "AI spenders."

Overall, this earnings season is tracking toward one of the strongest in years — aggregate S&P profit growth above 47%, with roughly 85% of companies beating estimates so far. The good numbers are real. They're just not evenly distributed.

Rate-Hike Odds Actually Cooled Off — Down to 64%

We told you a week ago these odds spiked to 82% for a September hike. They've come back down to 64%, according to the latest Fed funds futures pricing. Still elevated, still means "more likely than not," but the panic-level spike has eased. All eyes now shift to Thursday's July jobs report — strategists are hoping for a "Goldilocks" number, unemployment around 4.3%, hot enough to show a healthy economy but not so hot it locks in a hike.

This number will move again by Friday. Don't anchor any decision to today's 64% — anchor it to what actually gets reported.

NYSE Insider's Warning: August and September Are the S&P's Worst Months

We told you Bitcoin has a rough August habit. Turns out stocks do too. Since 1990, the S&P has averaged a 0.5% decline in a typical August and a 0.75% decline in September — the two weakest months of the calendar year. The index has also been stuck in a tight range, roughly 7,237 to 7,620, for two straight months now.

Duck it — seasonality is a pattern, not a rule. But two rough months on the calendar, back to back, landing right when the Fed and jobs data are both live wires, is worth knowing about before you're surprised by it.

This is a market news summary, not investment advice. Economic and financial conditions are subject to change — please make your own decisions and consider talking to a licensed financial advisor before acting on anything here.

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